War between Iran and Israel: brief history, current situation, economic consequences

The conflict between Iran and Israel, known as the Iran-Israel conflict, is one of the longest and most complex confrontations in the Middle East. This geopolitical crisis has deep historical roots and has a significant impact not only on the region but also on the global economy. In this article, we will look at the history of the conflict, its current state, and the possible economic consequences in the event of an escalation of war between Iran and Israel.

History of the Iran-Israel Conflict

The conflict between Iran and Israel dates back to the mid-20th century and is associated with ideological, religious and political contradictions. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, relations between the two countries deteriorated sharply. Iran began actively supporting anti-Israeli movements such as Hezbollah and Hamas, which led to numerous military clashes through proxy wars.

For decades, the parties have accused each other of destabilizing the region. Israel views Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat, while Iran has criticized Israel's policies toward the Palestinians. Tensions have escalated in recent years with a series of mutual airstrikes and cyberattacks.

Current situation: Israel launches massive airstrikes

The situation has now reached a new boiling point, with Israel launching massive airstrikes on key Iranian military targets. These actions were a response to alleged Iranian attacks on Israeli infrastructure. Such an escalation could lead to a full-scale war between Iran and Israel, raising serious concerns on the international stage.

Experts note that the Iran-Israel conflict has already gone beyond the boundaries of a local confrontation and affects the interests of other countries, including the United States, Russia and the European Union. Possible further developments include:

• Expansion of military action beyond the two countries.
• Strengthening the role of international organizations in finding a peaceful solution.
• Risk of drawing neighboring states into the conflict.

Consequences for the global economy

1. Energy crisis

One of the main consequences of the war between Iran and Israel will be the impact on the global energy market. Iran is a major producer of oil and gas, and the Middle East traditionally plays a key role in meeting global energy needs. Any military action in the region could have the following consequences:

• Closure of key sea routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supplies pass.
• Rising oil and gas prices, which will put pressure on the global economy.
• Increasing investment in alternative energy sources, but with a temporary shortage of resources.

2. Impact on trade routes

The Middle East is a strategically important region for international trade. A conflict between Iran and Israel could disrupt sea and air routes, which would affect logistics and increase the cost of delivering goods. This is especially critical for countries dependent on imported food and raw materials.

3. Financial Markets

Global financial markets are sensitive to geopolitical risks. An escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict could cause:

• A fall in stock prices and increased volatility on stock exchanges.
• Strengthening of "safe" assets such as gold and the Swiss franc.
• A decrease in investor confidence in emerging markets, especially in Asia and Africa.

4. Sanctions and their economic consequences

If the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates into a more widespread confrontation, the international community may impose new sanctions on Iran. This will worsen the country's economic situation and limit its ability to export oil and gas. However, sanctions will also have a negative impact on countries dependent on Iranian energy resources.

Possible scenarios

1. Localization of the conflict

If the international community can prevent the escalation of the war between Iran and Israel, the economic consequences will be minimal. However, this will require the active participation of diplomats and international organizations.

2. Escalation to the regional level

If the conflict expands to other countries in the Middle East, the consequences for the world economy will be catastrophic. This could lead to a global economic crisis similar to the oil shock of the 1970s.

3. Long-term changes

Regardless of the outcome of the Iran-Israel conflict, its consequences will have a long-term impact on global politics and economics. This could include a stronger role for China and Russia in the region, as well as accelerated development of renewable energy sources.

Conclusion

The conflict between Iran and Israel remains one of the most serious threats to the stability of the Middle East and the global economy. A war between Iran and Israel, if it escalates into a full-scale confrontation, could lead to higher energy prices, disruption of trade routes, and global economic instability.

The Iran-Israel conflict requires close monitoring and active diplomatic efforts to prevent its escalation. In the context of global interdependence, the consequences of this confrontation will affect not only the region, but the entire world economy.